Last weekend, after decades of tension, the United States, alongside Israel, began extraordinary military action against the Islamic Republic of Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and bringing America into another major conflict in the Middle East. President Donald J. Trump has suggested that the military campaign, named “Operation Epic Fury,” could last four to five weeks, though that timeline could expand or contract as the conflict grows throughout the region.
Despite unconfirmed reports of Israeli special operations on the ground in Iran, the operation appears to be limited to airstrikes by the United States and Israel. According to U.S. Central Command, the current campaign has destroyed 2,000+ targets delivered by two aircraft carrier battle groups and 200+ fighter and bomber aircraft. The first 24 hours of the operation resulted in twice the number of strikes as the “Shock and Awe” campaign against Iraq in 2003. U.S. military leaders have said the operation is ahead of schedule, and President Trump has said he has not written off sending troops into the country.
The administration has justified its military action against Iran by claiming that it was necessary to depose Iran’s theocratic regime (which has funded international terrorism for a generation), because Iran would soon have missiles that could hit targets inside the United States, and because a preemptive strike would minimize risk to U.S. military forces in the region. The administration did not seek approval from Congress prior to the attacks, and Republicans in Congress appear willing to grant the Trump Administration broad discretion in its current military action.
In this brief, we examine a few immediate consequences of the conflict as we close out the fifth day since the first attacks began.
U.S. Military Personnel Killed: So far, six U.S. service members have been killed and four others wounded in Kuwait by an Iranian drone attack on a U.S. tactical operations center. American leaders have said that they expect more casualties as the operation continues.
Three U.S. Embassies Closed: The U.S. embassies in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Kuwait announced they are closing indefinitely due to the conflict, and the U.S. State Department has urged Americans in the Middle East to leave the region immediately because of security concerns.
Closed Airspace: Following the attacks, airspace over the Middle East has been closed, with several countries shutting down air traffic. Airports in the Middle East serve as an important connection hub to Europe, Africa, and Asia, causing several hundred flights to cancelled or rerouted. The U.S. government is working to charter flights for U.S. citizens stranded in certain countries and seeking to help others elsewhere book tickets on commercial flights. It is not immediately clear when the charter flights will be available, although the Department of State said they are actively securing a mix of military and chartered aircraft to assist in the evacuations.
Regional Contagion: Iran has responded to the attacks by launching drones and missiles at several other Gulf countries, including Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Iraq, Jordan, and Qatar. These countries are reportedly considering joining the war on the side of the Americans and Israelis, which would be a historic moment of pan-Middle Eastern military cooperation. In addition to its continued bombing campaign in Iran, Israel has launched missiles and advanced its troops further into its neighbor, Lebanon, in retaliation for Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorists launching missiles into northern Israel.
On Wednesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean. NATO forces have shot down an Iranian missile headed toward Turkey, a NATO member, which could result in a dramatic escalation of the conflict.
Effect on Markets and Energy Prices: International stock markets fell and oil prices rose on Tuesday as a reaction to the ongoing conflict before recovering some of the losses. President Trump acknowledged that oil prices may increase because of the instability and suggested that the U.S. Navy could escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to stabilize supply. The Strait facilitates 20%–30% of global seaborne oil trade, making it an essential part of worldwide energy infrastructure.
Domestic Threats: While the U.S. government has insisted there are no imminent threats domestically, the Transportation Security Administration issued an advisory recommending vigilance around all security protocols, especially related to cybersecurity and energy infrastructure. U.S. military facilities and federal entities, including the White House and Congress, have heightened security measures.
This military operation, and Iran’s response, will be a major focus of the U.S. government for the foreseeable future. The situation is fluid and is changing by the day. We will continue to monitor the situation and encourage you to ask for assistance or information so that we can continue to serve you and your organization.
Sincerely,
Bridge Public Affairs