The new year began with foreign policy re-emerging as a dominant political topic, as the Trump administration is taking an aggressive posture to assert America’s role in the world, especially in the Western Hemisphere. While it was expected that Congress and the administration would focus on domestic issues – such as healthcare, the economy, and affordability – before the November midterms, foreign policy appears poised to be a major issue for policymakers throughout 2026.
Below, we preview several foreign policy issues we will be watching in 2026 and how the administration and Congress might respond to these situations.
VENEZUELA
On January 3rd, after months of saber-rattling, the United States conducted a major military and law enforcement operation to capture and arrest Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and transported them to New York to face narco-terrorism charges. While the removal of the authoritarian president, which has long been a goal of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, may be an initial welcome change for the country, his removal throws the country – and U.S. engagement there – into an uncertain and potentially chaotic future.
After Maduro’s removal from office, Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodriguez was sworn in as the interim president. However, at the same time, President Donald J. Trump and Secretary Rubio have repeatedly insisted that the U.S. will only support a leader who takes action to support the goals and demands of the U.S., namely reducing drug flow into the U.S., opening the country for U.S. oil companies, and removing Chinese and Russian influence within the country.
Opposition leaders within Venezuela, notably Maria Corina Machado, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025, and Edmundo Gonzalez, who won the 2024 election stolen by Maduro, have yet to receive the support from the United States, though President Trump hosted Machado at the White House last week. U.S. intelligence assessed that neither leader had adequate support from the Venezuelan military and that U.S. support for the opposition could further destabilize the country and require a more active military presence from the U.S.
President Trump has urged U.S. oil companies to make major investments in Venezuela to access the country’s large oil reserves and rebuild its energy infrastructure, though some of these companies appear hesitant to invest heavily in the country due to its crumbling infrastructure and weak legal protections. Many of these companies had their assets seized or forced into minority positions under previous Venezuelan regimes and claim to be owed millions of dollars. Accessing the vast oil reserves of Venezuela is clearly a priority for the Trump administration, and President Trump is likely to continue to pressure American companies to be involved in Venezuela as the U.S. plays a more active role in the country.
In response to the administration’s operation in Venezuela, the Senate initially passed a war powers measure sponsored by Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) requiring Congressional approval before taking additional military action in the country. The administration later successfully flipped Senators Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Todd Young (R-IN) to defeat the resolution in a procedural vote, effectively killing the measure. The administration argued that a war powers vote was not necessary because there are currently no U.S. troops on the ground in Venezuela.
IRAN
Tens of thousands of anti-government protesters have taken to the streets throughout Iran, challenging the country’s theocracy over its flailing currency and economy. The regime and its security forces responded with a brutal crackdown against the protestors, killing an estimated 2,000 people participating in the demonstrations since the protests began on December 28.
President Trump said that he canceled his meetings with Iranian officials and signaled he would aid the protestors. President Trump was reportedly considering a range of military options against Iran and threatened additional tariffs on any country continuing to do business with Iran. The U.S. also repositioned regional military personnel and equipment across the Middle East as a response to the rising tensions with Iran, which has threatened to respond if the United States intervenes.
UKRAINE AND RUSSIA
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is approaching its fourth year. Russia continues to escalate its attacks against Ukraine, while the Trump administration is seeking to negotiate an end to the conflict.
Last week, Russia launched a medium-range ballistic missile into Kyiv as part of a large-scale attack on Ukraine, knocking out electricity and water services to nearly half a million people in the Ukrainian capital and surrounding areas. Russia claimed that the attack was in response to Ukrainian drones targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence, which Ukraine denied. President Trump suggested that the drone attack never happened and was likely an invented narrative to disrupt the ongoing peace talks.
The United States, led by President Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, in close coordination with European leaders, has agreed to provide "NATO-like" security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace deal to end the war. The proposed peace plan, however, appears to be on life support after Russia rejected the idea of Western peacekeepers in Ukraine, which is a core tenet of the proposed peace plan.
While President Trump has been pushing various proposals to end the war in Ukraine since retaking office a year ago, Putin has shown little indication that he is interested in a ceasefire. Given the political capital that the administration has vested in ending this conflict, expect this to be a top issue to watch on the foreign policy stage in 2026.
CHINA
Since President Trump’s first term, the U.S. has taken a more aggressive posture toward China, seeking to counter its rising influence worldwide, a stance that remains one of the few remaining bipartisan issues in Washington. President Trump’s second term began with additional economic pressure on Beijing by levying significant tariffs on Chinese imports, causing China to respond in turn, and risking an all-out trade war.
In October 2025, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in South Korea to ease tensions and discuss a trade agreement. As a result of that meeting, the U.S. and China announced a deal that included China's promise to restart purchasing U.S. agricultural products and to remove restrictions on critical minerals exports. The U.S. agreed to pause triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods. However, implementing this agreement has proven more difficult, as there was no written agreement or specific details released. Each side appears to be maintaining maximum flexibility on these concessions as the agreement is finalized.
Additionally, a major source of tension between the United States and China is China’s threats to use force to “reunify” the mainland with Taiwan, which China claims as part of its territory. At the end of last year, China conducted another round of military drills around Taiwan, which was reported to have been in response to President Trump’s decision to approve a$10+ billion arms sale to Taiwan. For decades, the U.S. has had a policy of “strategic ambiguity” on whether it would come to the defense of Taiwan, to not provoke the Chinese into a situation where they need to invade to save face domestically. It is well understood, however, that the U.S. would protect Taiwan due to its critical geographic position and role as the world's leading semiconductor manufacturer. A war over Taiwan is the most likely scenario to trigger a military conflict between China and the United States. China is rapidly building its nuclear arsenal while the U.S. is undergoing a major upgrade to its nuclear umbrella.
ISRAEL AND GAZA
Late last year, Israel and Gaza signed a ceasefire agreement to end the two-year-long conflict that began with Hamas’ terrorist attack against Israel on October 7, 2023. President Trump’s 20-point plan for ending the war in Gaza formed the basis of the ceasefire, which has remained in place despite sporadic clashes between the Israeli Defense Forces and Gaza militants.
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced the second phase of the plan would focus on “demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction” despite the lack of progress from Hamas disarming and the remains of one hostage that have yet to be returned to Israel. Ending the war in Gaza is one of President Trump’s most significant foreign policy achievements in his second administration and will remain a top foreign policy priority for the administration.
GREENLAND
President Trump has made clear his interest in acquiring Greenland, a self-governing island and Danish territory, due to its strategic mineral deposits and Arctic location. According to the president, the island is essential to the United States' Golden Dome initiative to protect the homeland from missile attack. President Trump threatened U.S. military action to annex Greenland for the U.S., which resulted in rebukes from several GOP senators. European countries, including many traditional U.S. allies, also condemned President Trump’s suggestion of military action against Denmark, warning that it would be the end of the NATO security alliance. The president has also discussed purchasing the island, acquiring it through negotiation, increasing the American military presence, or expanding military cooperation in Greenland. While U.S. military action to acquire Greenland seems extremely unlikely, the administration seems determined to expand U.S. influence in Greenland as a strategic asset for U.S. national security against its primary rivals. It would be fair to assume that President Trump is using the threat of military action as leverage to force Denmark into an agreement.
CUBA
The removal of Venezuelan President Maduro may further destabilize Cuba, whose economy is collapsing due to growing shortages of electricity and basic goods. Cuba has managed to survive for years by being propped up by support from Venezuela. With Maduro’s capture and replacement, many believe the Cuban government will fail as the U.S. will prevent Venezuelan oil deliveries to Cuba. Like Venezuela, Secretary Rubio (who is the son of Cuban immigrants) and other Western Hemisphere hawks have long wanted to replace the communist government in Cuba, and many believe this is their best chance to do so. A failed state in Cuba – or even continued strangling of the Cuban economy – would likely result in millions of Cubans fleeing the country seeking better economic opportunities.
Others remain skeptical that Cuba is on the verge of collapse, citing the government’s nearly seven-decade-long dominance despite multiple attempts to replace it. Cuban Americans are a significant, bipartisan political force in Florida and Texas and exert influence in Congress. We expect U.S.-Cuba relations to remain a relevant foreign policy debate throughout this year, inextricably linked to the situation in Venezuela.
As always, we are standing by to answer any questions you may have about these topics or others that could impact you or your business.
Sincerely,
Bridge Public Affairs
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