Only one hundred and seven days before the general election in November, President Biden made history by ending his reelection campaign and endorsing his Vice President, Kamala Harris, for the Democratic Party’s nomination for President. Harris quickly consolidated support, and the Party is now largely unified behind her candidacy.
On August 6th, Harris announced that she had selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to serve as her Vice President if elected in November. With the Democratic Party Convention now underway in Chicago, we forecast the major policy changes we would expect to see in a Harris-Walz Administration.
Healthcare
Kamala Harris was among the most progressive members of the U.S. Senate when she represented California from 2017-2021, especially on healthcare policy. Harris joined Senator Bernie Sanders (VT-I) to support universal healthcare via a transition to “Medicare for All,” but has also supported a “public option” that would effectively create a taxpayer-funded insurance option that would compete with private insurance companies. A Harris Administration would also likely build upon the actions taken by Trump and Biden to cap the costs of prescription drugs, especially for senior citizens.
Abortion
The Harris Campaign has vowed to “restore reproductive freedom,” meaning restoring Roe v. Wade and expand access to abortion in all states. The primary hurdle to a Harris Administration on this topic is the current makeup of the Supreme Court, which ruled in Dobbs v. Jackson that the Constitution does not confer a right to abortion. To this end, Harris is supporting President Biden’s proposed reforms to the Supreme Court that would include term limits for justices.
Renewable Energy and Energy Infrastructure
The Biden Administration has implemented the most stringent environmental rules and climate standards in a generation, and a Harris Administration would likely continue those efforts. As a U.S. Senator, Harris joined Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY-14) in calling for a Green New Deal, which would transform energy production and consumption across America through massive subsidies for renewable energy and battery technology, significantly increase efficiency standards for everything from cars to heavy machinery, and curtail fossil fuel production.
Furthermore, she had previously proposed banning fracking, which is an important industry in swing-state Pennsylvania, but has since walked back from this position. Harris may continue to pivot away from these policy plans, but doing so would risk upsetting influential liberal environmental groups when their support is needed most. At the very least, Harris is expected to continue to push for increased investments in clean energy projects stemming from President Biden’s legislative achievements, primarily Inflation Reduction Act, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, and the CHIPS Act.
Foreign Policy
Specifics of Vice President Harris’ foreign policies are not well known as she has historically preferred to focus on domestic policy. She has some experience with U.S. intelligence services, having served on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. In general, it is assumed that her foreign policy, especially toward China and Russia, would largely follow the path laid by the Biden Administration, with a heavy emphasis on multilateral institutions like NATO led largely by democracies in Western Europe.
The Middle East, however, is one issue where Vice President Harris is perceived to have a different approach than President Biden, particularly when it comes to the Israeli-Gaza conflict. Since the war in Gaza began, Harris has urged the Administration to be more sympathetic about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Last month, Harris skipped Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to Congress, met with him afterwards, and publicly commented on the humanitarian disaster of the war. While Harris has insisted on Israel’s right to defend itself, progressives are hoping that a Harris Administration would be tougher on Israel and its handling of the war in Gaza. It may be more likely, however, that the policy remains similar to President Biden’s even if the rhetoric is more pronounced.
Economic Policy
Last Friday, Harris released an economic plan outlining the broad contours of her economic policy priorities. These priorities included addressing the national housing shortage with a $40 billion fund for local governments to boost supply and tax incentives for developers who build for first-time homeowners, and a federal ban on price gouging by corporations to address inflation. She has also supported eliminating taxes on tips, enacting paid leave, and expanding the child tax credit.
Big Tech
Vice President Harris has been a leading voice on bringing antitrust lawsuits against big technology companies to break up powerful Silicon Valley firms or prevent future mergers and acquisitions in the tech sector. The Vice President also supports tougher privacy regulations for social media companies to protect user data. Despite her tough stance on big tech, Harris has historically had close ties with big tech companies and executives based in the San Francisco Bay Area, her personal and political home.
Immigration
Early in his term, President Biden put Vice President Harris in charge of stemming the flow of illegal immigrants from their origins in the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras – an effort that has largely failed and is now a major political liability for Harris’ campaign. Harris has sent mixed signals on her stance on immigration. While she has supported decriminalizing illegal immigration and granting amnesty to immigrants who are in the country illegally, the Vice President told Guatemalans in 2021 “do not come” to the Mexico-US border, to the dismay of many immigrant-rights organizations.
Trade and Tariffs
The Biden Administration has avoided negotiating traditional free trade agreements, opting instead for trade arrangements and partnerships that encourage a global transition to renewable energy. While Harris has not focused on trade issues as vice president, based on her record in the Senate, Harris may continue this trend, especially prioritizing trade deals that seek to address climate change while remaining generally skeptical of free trade. In 2020, she was one of only 10 senators to vote against the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced NAFTA, because of its insufficient measures to address climate change. Likewise, she said she would vote against the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) partly due to her concern that it would undermine California's strict environmental laws.
As a presidential candidate in 2020, Harris denied being a “protectionist Democrat” and was critical of the tariffs put in place against Chinese imports by the Trump Administration. However, because the Biden Administration has kept and expanded those tariffs, it may be politically difficult for Harris to distance herself from this policy especially since much of the clean energy industry is supportive of the tariffs.
Who We’re Watching
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz was selected as Harris’s running mate earlier this month. He has served as the governor of Minnesota since 2019 and previously served in the House of Representatives from 2007 to 2019, where he served as the ranking member of the House Veterans’ Affairs Committee. Before his tenure in politics, Walz was a high school teacher and served in the Army National Guard.
As governor, Walz prioritized policies that advanced clean energy, increased spending on education, enacted some of the most progressive tax policies in the country, advancing the so-called “care economy,” of guaranteed paid family and medical leave, expanding child tax credits, increasing sales tax to support rental assistance programs, and expanding the state’s housing supply. Walz is seen as a candidate who is fully aligned with Harris’s policies, while at the same time, politically appealing to voters must-win Midwestern states.
Dr. Philip Gordon serves as National Security Advisor to the Vice President Harris. He has previously served in several senior foreign policy positions in the U.S. government, including as White House Coordinator for the Middle East, North Africa, and the Gulf Region; Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, and National Security Council Director for European Affairs. Dr. Gordon may serve as National Security Advisor to Harris if she wins the presidential election.
Brian Nelson served as the Department of Treasury’s under-secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence in the Biden Administration and recently joined as the Harris campaign to advise on policy matters. Harris and Nelson have a long history together, dating back to when Harris was attorney general in California and Nelson served in senior legal roles for Los Angeles’ bid to host the 2028 Olympics.
Gina Raimondo currently serves as the Secretary of Commerce in the Biden Administration and her name was briefly floated as a potential vice president candidate for Harris. Raimondo, who has led implementation of many of President Biden’s policies, including the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS Act, and export controls toward China, may retain her position at the Department of Commerce or serve as another senior economic advisor to Harris.
Ike Irby has been a trusted advisor to Vice President Harris, working in Harris’ Senate office as a climate policy advisor, and in the White House as Former Domestic Policy Advisor and Chief Climate Advisor to the Vice President until earlier this year. Given his long-standing relationship with Harris and the priority that climate policy is likely to receive under a possible Harris Administration, Irby is expected to continue to be a prominent voice on shaping climate policy if Harris wins the White House.
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