Good morning, friends:
With the November election just three weeks away, we have a preview of the current state of play for who will control the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives, including an in-depth analysis of the most contested and important congressional races. While the electoral map favors Republicans to retake the Senate, the race to control the White House and House of Representatives is still too close to be determined.
The White House
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remain nearly even in national polls less than one month before Election Day. However, control of the White House will essentially be determined by seven swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Those states are all extremely close with Vice President Harris leading by 1 or 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and Trump with similar leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. With the margins so close in many of these states, it remains unclear as to who will take the White House this November.
The United States Senate
There are thirty-four Senate seats up for election in 2024, but control of the upper chamber of Congress will be decided by 8 competitive races in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. The Democrats currently have a narrow majority in the Senate thanks to 3 independent senators who caucus with Democrats, but they would need to win 7 of these races to maintain a minimum 50-50 partisan split in the Senate.
Four of these races currently lean Democrat with incumbents Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Bob Casey (D-PA), and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) leading in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, respectively. Senator Krysten Sinema’s (I-AZ) retirement has set up a tight Arizona election between Congressman Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-3), a progressive, and Kari Lake, a Trump favorite, who lost Arizona’s gubernatorial election in 2022.
Montana and Texas, however, are leaning Republican. Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) is facing a difficult reelection in a state that is staunchly conservative against Republican Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, with the ability to self-finance his campaign. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) is seeking his third term as Texas senator in a reliably red state against Congressman Colin Allred (D-TX-32), who is polling well against Cruz but is generally considered a long-shot to unseat the Republican Senator.
Michigan and Ohio are currently considered tossup states. In Michigan, the race to replace retiring Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) is between former Congressman Mike Rogers (R-AL-3) and Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D-MI-7), who has represented Michigan’s 7th congressional district since 2019. In Ohio, Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH), who chairs the Senate Banking Committee and has held his seat since 2007, is facing a tough reelection against Bernie Moreno, a businessman who has been endorsed by Trump.
Finally, one additional race to watch closely is in Maryland between former Maryland Republican Governor Larry Hogan and Angela Alsobrooks, who are competing to replace Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD), who is retiring after his third term. Hogan left the governorship in 2022 with an extremely high approval rating but is currently trailing 10 points behind Alsobrooks in a state that overwhelmingly voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, where Harris now leads Trump by nearly 30 points.
The United States House of Representatives
Out of the 435 House seats up for reelection, The New York Times and the Cook Political Report characterize 69 races across 22 states as still competitive. These predictions characterize 366 seats as “solid,” 174 for Democrats and 192 for Republicans. Of the contested seats, 28 are leaning or likely Democrat, 15 are leaning or likely Republican, and the remaining 26 are up in the air across 16 states from Alaska down to Texas and all up and down the East Coast.
Across the nation, Democrats have a financial edge, having out-fundraised the Republicans by tens of millions of dollars in campaign dollars.
If all leaning or likely races go as predicted, Republicans could maintain control of the chamber by winning 11 of the 26 seats rated as tossups. They have incumbents in 14 of those seats. Democrats could take control with 16 of the tossup seats. They have 9 incumbents in those seats.
While not expected to be impactful in the presidential election, non-swing states are experiencing intense competition in House races, specifically in districts like California’s 45th and Iowa’s 3rd. Since these races do not have the swing-state benefit of presidential attention or campaign dollars, the races are much more reliant on local initiatives and local fundraising.
Other important races include Republican ex-NASCAR driver Austin Theriault as a challenger in Maine’s 2nd, Democrat Laura Gillen looking for a Long Island seat in New York’s 4th, hard-fighting Democrat incumbent Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania’s 8th, conservative farmer John Duarte in California’s 13th, and a surprisingly southern-border-focused race between incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Trump-backed Joe Kent in Washington’s 3rd.
Our team will continue to follow the upcoming federal elections closely as we approach the final weeks before the election and early voting has already begun. After the election results come in, we will keep you updated on Congress’ reactions during the lame duck session this winter. If you have any questions or would like more information, please let us know how we can be most helpful to you.
Sincerely,
The Bridge Team
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