Good morning, friends:
With less than a month until Election Day on November 3, Congress has adjourned until November 9 for lawmakers to return home to campaign. The midterm elections will determine control of Congress for the next two years and shape the legislative and oversight environment for the remainder of President Trump's term. With Republicans holding narrow majorities in both chambers, the outcome could significantly alter the administration's ability to advance its agenda and the broader political environment in Washington.
The House is the most immediate battleground, and the political environment favors Democrats, with President Trump's popularity at a historic low and rising prices for many consumer goods. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to reclaim the majority, and current race projections have Democrats in a strong position to retake control. A Democratic majority would shift the chambers' focus on oversight and investigations of the Trump administration, including its immigration enforcement policies, federal agency restructuring, and potential financial conflicts of interest involving the president and his family.
The Senate presents a more challenging path for Democrats, but many of the races have become increasingly competitive. Thirty-five seats are up for election, including two special elections in Florida and Ohio, with Republicans defending 22 seats and Democrats defending 13. Democrats must gain a net four seats to secure a majority, making a handful of races critical to the control of the upper chamber.
Below, we examine key House races that may be national bellwethers for the midterms and several Senate races that may determine Senate majority, as well as congressional leadership, the Trump administration's policy agenda, and Washington's political landscape until January 2029.
HOUSE RACES
Virginia’s 1st Congressional District: Democrat Shannon Taylor is running against 10-term incumbent Republican Rob Wittman. Taylor currently has a slight edge in a district that Wittman won by 13 points in 2024, when President Trump carried it by almost 5 points. This race may be especially telling for how suburban voters are responding to the parties in 2026.
Michigan’s 7th Congressional District: Republican Tom Barrett is seeking reelection against Democrat Will Lawrence in a district that Barrett narrowly won in 2024 President Trump won by less than 2 percentage points last election. This race is being closely watched as a competitive Midwestern race and could provide insight into how voters in the regions are responding to the national political environment.
Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District: Republican Ryan Mackenzie, who won the district by 1 percentage point in 2024, is running against Democrat Bob Brooks in another highly competitive race. In 2024, President Trump carried the district by approximately 3 percentage points. This race is one of the clearest House bellwethers in 2026 as a test of whether Republicans can hold a narrow-Republican learning Pennsylvania district.
SENATE RACES
Maine – Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins is facing former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson in a closely watched contest. Democrats had identified Maine as an opportunity to gain a Senate seat, but candidate controversies surrounding the Democratic campaign have altered the dynamics of the race. Republicans are confident that Senator Collins’ longstanding bipartisan reputation and record of delivering for the state to retain support among independent voters.
North Carolina – With Republican Sen. Thom Tillis retiring, North Carolina presents a key opportunity for Democrats to gain a Senate seat. Former Gov. Roy Cooper, who won two statewide gubernatorial elections, is running against Republican Michael Whatley, the former chairman of the Republican National Committee. The race is expected to be highly competitive and is among the contests that could determine control of the Senate.
Ohio – Incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted is facing former Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown in one of the closest Senate races of 2026 and is currently rated by analysts as a “toss up.” Husted has focused on issues including energy, affordability, and data centers, while Brown has sought to make Husted’s close alignment with President Trump the central issue.
Michigan – Following Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ retirement, former Republican Representative Mike Rodgers is facing Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, who represents the more progressive wing of the Democratic party. This race is currently rated as a toss-up and will be closely watched as a test of how progressive Democratic candidates perform in competitive statewide races. Republicans view the open seat as one of their strongest opportunities to gain a Senate seat in 2026.
New Hampshire – Former Republican Sen. John Sununu is facing Democratic Representative Chris Pappas for the open Senate seat following Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s decision not to seek reelection. Sununu brings significant statewide name recognition, having previously served in the Senate and coming from one of New Hampshire’s most prominent political families. Despite the state’s Democratic-leaning federal delegation, the race is expected to draw significant national attention, with Republicans viewing the open seat as an opportunity to expand their Senate majority.
Iowa – With Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s retiring, the Iowa Senate race is an open-seat contest between Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek. President Trump’s tariffs and their impact on Iowa’s agricultural sector have been a central issue in the race. If the Democrats win in Iowa, it would be the first time in 18 years that the Democrats have won a senate seat in the state.
Texas – With Sen. John Cornyn losing the Republican primary to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Republicans are now mounting a major effort to hold the seat, with outside groups committing more than $100 million to the race. Paxton is facing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, a rising figure in the Texas Democratic Party, and the contest has become unexpectedly competitive for a traditionally Republican Senate seat. Paxton’s record – including a series of legal and political controversies – has given Democrats an opening, while Republicans are working to consolidate support around their nominee.
Our team is closely following these and many other races in the final weeks before Election Day. If there are ways we can be helpful to you before Election Day, during the Lame Duck, or as a new Congress comes into Washington, please let us know. We look forward to working with each of you to advance your policy priorities throughout the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
Sincerely,
Bridge Public Affairs