Good afternoon, friends:
As you are undoubtably aware, former President Donald J. Trump won every single swing state and the popular vote, a result that hands him a strong mandate to govern. Republicans also took back control of the Senate and are expected to retain control of the House of Representatives. The new members of Congress will be sworn in on January 3, 2025, and the presidential inauguration will occur on January 20, 2025. Between now and then, the 118th Congress and President Biden will continue to govern in what is called a lame-duck session, which will include 5 scheduled weeks of in D.C. before departing for the Christmas holiday. While the results of the elections will certainly impact the lame-duck priorities, we have outlined what is likely to be the focus of Congress for the next several weeks.
Appropriations: The current continuing resolution passed by Congress funds the government through December 20; however, with Republicans controlling the White House and both houses of Congress next year, they may attempt to postpone enacting a Fiscal Year 2025 appropriations bill until they have more leverage to enact their priorities and cut federal spending on certain programs. If so, Congress would need to pass another continuing resolution by December 20 to fund the government into 2025.
It seems even more possible that congressional Republicans strike a bipartisan deal to advance this year’s appropriations bill in the lame-duck to avoid a shutdown immediately after President Trump’s inauguration. Doing so would allow him to start immediately on advancing the policy priorities he outlined in the campaign.
Congressional Leadership Races: The House GOP is scheduled to vote on its leadership for the 119th Congress on Tuesday, November 13. With Republicans maintaining their control of the House, House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA-7) leadership position is likely secure, though he will have to win a floor vote to remain speaker. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA-1) and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN-6) are also likely to remain atop the House GOP, while several members are jockeying to become the new House GOP conference chair to replace Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY-21), who was named as the next U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations.
Across the Hill, the Senate Republican leadership race to replace Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is between Senators John Thune (R-SD), John Cornyn (R-TX), and Rick Scott (R-FL) and will occur on November 13 via a secret ballot election among Republican senators. While Thune and Cornyn are the likely front-runners, Scott is perceived to be more closely aligned with President-elect Trump. While it would be unprecedented for a president-elect to endorse a senator for majority leader, a Trump endorsement could dramatically change the current projections in Scott’s favor.
NDAA: The annual defense policy bill remains one of the few must-pass bipartisan pieces of legislation and has been enacted annually by Congress for over 60 years. As such, this will be a top priority for Congress during the lame-duck session. Both the House and the Senate have passed their respective versions of the legislation, setting up the conference process to reconcile the differences between the two bills, particularly around the topline authorization of appropriations for the Department of Defense. Other priorities that are under consideration include military assistance for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, weapon modernization, advancing U.S. military advantage in AI, and several China-related provisions with tax and trade implications, including outbound investments to China in critical industries.
Healthcare Package: There remain several outstanding healthcare priorities that lawmakers will attempt to address in the lame-duck session, potentially in a stand-alone healthcare-focused package. Among the policy items to watch are area wage index adjustments, Medicare provider payment adjustments, extension of telehealth allowances, and community health center funding. The upfront cost of these proposals remains the primary obstacle even if they would result in long-term savings for the government and healthcare system broadly. Beyond budgetary concerns, Congress would need to agree on the specific policies and enact them in a final package before the end of the year.
Farm Bill: Lawmakers from both parties have decried the lack of progress in this Congress regarding the Farm Bill, a multiyear omnibus setting policy for a broad range of agricultural and food programs. Last year, the Farm Bill was extended by one-year until September 30, 2024, and with only a few weeks of a lame-duck session and power shifting in Washington, it appears likely that the bill will receive another one-year extension without new policy or authorized funding levels.
Confirming Judges: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has vowed to use the lame-duck session to confirm more federal judges to match the number of judges appointed during the Trump administration. However, President-elect Trump has demanded that Republican senators block any judicial appointments in the lame-duck.
Our team will be following all these issues closely and will update you throughout the remainder of the year. If you would like more information on any of these issues, please share how we can be most helpful.
Sincerely,
The Bridge Team