Good morning, friends:
Congress returns today from a two-week recess. While most of the first three months of 2024 focused on reaching a funding agreement for fiscal year 2024, there are several issues Congress hopes to address before breaking for the summer recess and the November elections.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) wants to act on several legislative items included below, but his ability to enact any of these items may depend on his ability to get Republican support for them. Meanwhile, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA-4) will likely need Democrat votes to pass any legislation, thanks to a historically thin one-seat majority due to several lawmakers retiring early. Making deals with Democrats, however, may make his speakership vulnerable from the most conservative flanks of his conference. Due to these factors, reaching an agreement and enacting any legislation may be particularly difficult.
Below we summarize what is on Congress’ agenda for the next three months and the political dynamics surrounding each issue.
Data Privacy: Over the weekend, key lawmakers announced a bipartisan agreement on legislation that would give consumers broad control over how tech companies use their personal data. The agreement is a major milestone in the congressional debate over data privacy, which has eluded age for nearly two decades. The agreement reportedly includes a federal preemption of states' privacy laws and would require companies to gather only as much information as they need to offer specific products to consumers, while giving customers the ability to access, delete, and transport their data between digital services.
Ukraine Aid: Speaker Johnson, a Ukraine aid skeptic, has indicated he will move forward an aid package for Ukraine when the House returns to session this week. Johnson has floated converting foreign aid into loans, seizing and selling Russian assets with the proceeds going to Ukraine, and adding U.S. border security measures and aid to Israel and Taiwan to attract House Republican support. Johnson would need Democratic votes to bypass the House Rules Committee, so some of these provisions may not be viable, specifically aid for Israel given the Democrat’s increasing criticism of how Israel is conducting its war against Hamas in Gaza.
Francis Scott Key Bridge Emergency Funding: The White House has urged Congress to provide funding to repair the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore after its collapse late last month. Federal officials estimate that it could cost as much as $2 billion to rebuild the bridge, which will require congressional approval and will be at the top of the legislative agenda when Congress returns this week.
TikTok Ban: In March, the House passed legislation introduced by Chairman Mike Gallagher (R-WI-8) and Ranking Member Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL-8) of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party that would force the sale of TikTok or ban its use in the U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer must now decide how to proceed. If he brings it up for a vote, bypassing the Senate Commerce Committee, it will likely pass the Senate. However, Senate Commerce Chair Maria Cantwell (R-WA) opposes the bill as currently written and wants to hold a public hearing on the issue and amend the legislation. The bill would likely languish in the Senate for the remainder of this year if Senator Schumer referred it to committee. The White House has said President Biden will sign the legislation if it passes Congress.
Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA): The House is planning to vote on a standalone bill to reauthorize Section 702 of FISA, a controversial spy authority which was intended to target non-citizens outside of the U.S. but has come under fire for its ability to sweep up information on Americans as well. House Speaker Johnson has been forced to pull votes on the reauthorization two times already because of disagreements within his party about the bill, specifically between Republicans on the House Judiciary and Intelligence Committees. Those divisions have yet to be resolved. Current FISA authorization expires on April 19 and national security officials warn that allowing the authorization to expire without renewal would endanger homeland security.
Judicial Confirmations: Senate Majority Leader Schumer will likely seek to confirm many of President Joe Biden’s judicial nominees, although Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) has pledged not to vote for any judicial picks that lack Republican support. Without Manchin’s vote, Schumer would need to rely on Vice President Kamala Harris’ tiebreaking vote for any party line votes or focus on nominees that have GOP support.
Wyden-Smith Tax Bill: There appears to be waning Senate support for the tax measure negotiated by Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-OR) and House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-MO-8). The legislation, which passed the House in January, would expand the child tax credit and restore tax breaks related to business research costs, capital expenses, and interest. Senator Mike Crapo (R-ID), the top Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, has opposed the bill, as has his long-time ally Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). Senate Majority Leader Schumer has been supportive of the bill, but likely will not bring it up for a vote unless there is clear GOP support to clear the 60-vote Senate floor threshold. Any momentum for enacting the legislation is likely to stall with the 2023 tax filing deadline approaching next week.
Other Legislation: Members of Congress are also eager to see action on several other pieces of legislation, including an overall of rail safety, a bill to legalize cannabis, the reauthorization of the Federal Aviation Administration, the farm bill, and Senator Blackburn’s Kids Online Safety Act, which has over 60 cosponsors.
Our team will follow these issues closely and update you throughout the rest of the year. If you would like more information on any of these issues, please let us know how we can be most helpful.
Sincerely,
The Bridge Team