Executive Summary:
The Tennessee congressional delegation is now comprised of 8 Republicans and 1 Democrat; Governor Bill Lee was easily re-elected to a term ending in 2026 and the Republican supermajorities remain in the House and Senate of the Tennessee General Assembly.
Tennessee’s Amendment 1, which would ban workplaces from requiring union membership as a condition of employment, overwhelmingly passed.
At the federal level, the dust has still not settled, but it appears likely Republicans will gain control of the House, with control of the Senate still to be determined by the elections in Georgia and Nevada.
A Republican-controlled House is expected to be more hawkish on China, ease energy permits, boost oil and gas production, push for more trade liberalization, and conduct oversight investigations into how money from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will be spent.
Tennessee Election Results
After Tuesday’s midterm election, the Tennessee congressional delegation makeup is now 8 Republicans and 1 Democrat. The only change occurred from TN-5 with Andy Ogles, a Republican, winning the seat previously occupied by Representative Jim Cooper, a Democrat. Neither of Tennessee’s U.S. Senators were up for re-election this year. Senator Marsha Blackburn will be up for re-election in 2024.
While committee appointments will be determined early in 2023, Congressman Chuck Fleischmann is well-positioned to be chairman of the House Energy and Water Development Subcommittee on Appropriations or possibly chairman of the House Labor, HHS, Education Subcommittee on Appropriations. Senator Bill Hagerty is expected to retain his membership on the Appropriations Committee and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Senator Marsha Blackburn is also expected to remain on the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee as well as the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Governor Bill Lee was easily re-elected to his second term as governor and will be term-limited in 2026. Republicans also maintained their supermajority control of the Tennessee General Assembly. The State Senate elected 26 Republicans and six Democrats; while the State House elected 68 Republicans and 23 Democrats. Notably, Tennessee Amendment 1, which would have amended the Tennessee Constitution to prohibit workplace contracts that require union membership or affiliation as a condition of employment, passed with nearly 70% of voters in favor of the ban.
A Look Ahead: Priorities Assuming a Republican-Controlled House of Representatives
While the “red wave” Republicans had hoped for did not materialize and the results of many of the races have yet to be finalized, it is likely that Republicans will control the House of Representatives, albeit narrowly. At this point, it is estimated that Republicans will have a majority of somewhere between two and 12 votes. Control of the Senate will likely be determined by the outcome of races in Nevada and Georgia. Wisconsin and Arizona haven’t been called yet, but the incumbents – Republican Ron Johnson and Democrat Mark Kelly – are ahead in both states.
Below is a preview of some of GOP priorities in the 118th Congress if they take one or both houses of Congress:
China Hawks: With control of the House, many of the key congressional committees will focus on US-China national security, trade, and economic issues. Specifically, GOP-led committees are expected to focus on the origins of COVID-19, China’s state-sponsored cyberattacks against the United States, supply chain security of critical minerals, and export controls of certain industries, while also pressuring the Biden Administration to be more aggressive in its defense of Taiwan from China.
Republican Energy Package: Congressional Republicans are likely to push their own energy priorities that seek to address inflation and energy costs, specifically to stimulate oil and gas production, ease permitting regulations, and reduce reliance on China and Russia for critical minerals.
Oversight Investigations of Spending: Republicans in Congress are expected to conduct rigorous oversight as they scrutinize recipients of federal aid from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). GOP lawmakers have already released statements raising concerns on the implementation of the loan guarantee program under the Department of Energy, which received billions in new funding and authority.
Trade Liberalization: Republicans are expected to push President Biden toward a more active trade liberalization, an opportunity the President may embrace, especially if he finds his domestic agenda stalled by a Republican-controlled House. Congressional Republicans will especially push the administration to bring back Trade Promotion Authority, which allows for expedited congressional approval of trade deals – an authority that might even be addressed in the lame-duck session of Congress. With bipartisan consensus on the threat posed by China, there will be increased interest in the Asia-Pacific region which may spur calls for the expansion of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework or even the rejoining of the Trans-Pacific Partnership that was terminated under President Trump.
Privacy Legislation: Congress is also expected to consider comprehensive data security and digital privacy legislation. The bipartisan, bicameral American Data Privacy and Protection Act was favorably reported out of the House Energy and Commerce Committee earlier this year but failed to move forward due to opposition from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) over the legislation’s “preemption” of California’s own privacy legislation, as well as Senate Commerce Committee Chairwoman Maria Cantwell’s objections to the enforcement provisions in the bill. With the Republicans in control of the House, the likelihood for the bill’s enactment has likely improved and will be a top priority in the 118th Congress.
Ukraine Assistance: The Biden administration is likely to find a Republican House increasingly skeptical of additional support to Ukraine. While Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has consistently expressed support for Ukraine funding, other Republicans, especially in the House, have questioned the cost of the foreign assistance after several rounds of aid. To date, the U.S. has approved more than $65 billion in assistance for Ukraine this year, including nearly $18 billion in military assistance, and the Biden administration is expected to request additional assistance to be included in the year-end spending deal to be negotiated during the lame duck session.